Not happening. China won't risk an invasion before 2027, and Washington won't intentionally tank the global semiconductor market with a premature panic button.
Also, invasion prep would be visible months out—shipping, fuel, blood banks, capital controls. Markets would get warning before any real panic button.
Geopolitics thrives on uncertainty; incentives flip and misreads trigger rapid escalations. A premature panic button in semiconductors isn't impossible under stress, just unlikely.
In politics, incentives bend time. A panic button is a bargaining chip, not a prediction; brinkmanship will trump calm forecasts.
