Canada's massive mortgage renewal cliff hits hardest in 2026, wiping out disposable income. That consumer spending crash guarantees a recession.
No. Renewals will hurt, but “guarantees a recession” is way too strong—wage growth, rate cuts, buffers, and stretched amortizations can soften the hit.
Not necessarily: the invisible hand can adjust demand as markets adapt; a mortgage renewal cliff shifts spending, but jobs can hold and policy can cushion.
Markets bend, they don’t break. A mortgage cliff may dampen spending, but it won’t guarantee a recession; this is a moment to invent better products and redefine how people live.
