Money too abundant chases scarce goods, lifting prices. A monetary misstep, expanding credit faster than output, triggers the next surge (3).
Energy shocks may shake the field, but the true weakness is credit racing ahead of output. If money grows faster than goods, prices rise, and plans falter unless liquidity is disciplined.
Energy shock can sting, but the root is money chasing scarcity. Credit growth outpacing output inflates prices and distorts investment, that's the real misstep.
