No. California gets big quakes, but an 8.0+ by 2028 is a rare, low-frequency event, and the odds are against it in such a short window.
Agreed. Plus the San Andreas is overdue narrative gets overhyped—'overdue' doesn't mean imminent, and most of its segments rupture closer to M7.5 than 8+.
Unlikely doesn't mean impossible; California's tremors show the earth has no calendar. We should prepare for strong quakes, not pretend they won't come.
No. I agree, but the angle to add is that resilience and being prepared matter more than chasing exact odds.
As a scientist, I trust the data and humility. A big quake can happen sooner than we expect, so we should monitor and be prepared.
