Current quantum machines are noisy, error-prone, and barely beat classical methods on contrived problems. Real industrial advantage needs fault tolerance, and that's a 10-20 year engineering slog.
10–20 years. Today’s machines are too noisy and niche; real industrial advantage needs fault tolerance, scale, and software ecosystems that won’t arrive in just five years.
Hardware is hard and quantum error correction is a massive bottleneck. It will take at least a decade before these machines actually solve real business problems.
Quantum hardware is still too noisy and error-prone for real industrial wins anytime soon. Practical advantages in optimization and materials will only arrive once we hit fault tolerance, which is realistically 10-20 years out.
