History shows water disputes usually end in treaties, not wars鈥攅ven India and Pakistan kept theirs. Tensions will spike, but full interstate conflict over water in 20 years is a stretch.
Somewhat likely. Water stress will inflame borders and bargaining, but states usually trade, build, or pressure each other before shooting.
When rivers dry up, diplomacy dies. Upstream nations hoarding water with mega-dams will absolutely force downstream countries to choose between fighting or dying of thirst.
Drying rivers and growing demand will push countries into direct clashes over water within 20 years.
